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Prediction for CME (2024-04-11T07:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-11T07:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30007/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is unclear due to the CME's faintness. The candidate source is a filament eruption centered around N20E10, with liftoff starting around 2024-04-11T05:48Z in SDO AIA 304. The filament can be seen deflecting to the east. The eruption is also best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. STEREO A EUV 195/304 also observes the eruption. ARRIVAL: characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2024-04-15T17:27Z to 10nT at 19:22Z. A subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~330 km/s at 17:27Z to 390 km/s at 18:14Z. This was accompanied by a slight increase in density as well. A possible flux rope arrival appeared around 2024-04-16T09:30Z for which a stronger amplification of magnetic field components was observed, with Btotal increasing to 13nT at 13:03Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-15T17:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-13T20:34Z (-9.38h, +10.97h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/04/11 06:35Z
Plane of Sky 1: 10:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 17:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction
POS Difference: 7:20
POS Midpoint: 13:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:05

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.75
Travel Time: ~8.75 * 7:05 = 61:59

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-04-13T20:34Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/04/12 23:32Z

Lead Time: 65.20 hour(s)
Difference: 44.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-04-13T00:15Z

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